Acknowledgments:

The work of W.L.H. and C.M.L. has been supported by the Northwestern Undergraduate Research Assistant (URA) Program. The work of C.M.L. is currently supported by the Northwestern RTG in Quantitative Biological Modeling through NSF grant no. 1547394. The work of A.V. is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant no. DMS-1764421 and by the Simons Foundation/SFARI under grant no. 597491-RWC. We gratefully acknowledge FiveThirtyEight for aggregating public polling data. We thank Niall M. Mangan, the Mangan group, and William Kath for helping to secure funding and feedback for this project, Jithin D. George for suggestions on website hosting, and, in particular, Daniel F. Linder, Mason A. Porter, and Grzegorz A. Rempala for helpful comments.